The influential University of Washington model predicts COVID-19 infections will peak in Pennsylvania around Sept. 25 and stay on a mostly flat but slightly downward level through the end of the year.
The model further predicts Pennsylvania will see a total of 33,133 deaths as of Dec. 1. The state’s death toll stood at 28,235 as of Wednesday, so the model projects nearly 5,000 more deaths by December.
The model reflects confirmed cases but also adds estimated infections among people who don’t get tested. When including the estimated infections, Pennsylvania is seeing about 10,200 per day, according to the University of Washington. That is expected to peak at about 13,500 per day in late September and early October.
The model predicts the need for hospital beds for COVID-19 patients will continue rising until Oct. 19 and stay at that peak level for about three weeks. The projected peak is more than 1,000 beds less than the number used during Pennsylvania’s worst peak in late 2020, when there was serious concern about running short of beds and available staff.
The model predicts deaths will rise to about 60 per day in late October before staying flat through the remainder of the year.
Nationally, the total of confirmed and estimated infections has already peaked as of around Aug. 23 and is now on a downward slope, according to the University of Washington model. Hospital usage and daily deaths are also nearing a peak and about to begin a downward slope, according to the model.
The University of Washington forecasts are based on people continuing to use face masks at the current rate.
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