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A slight risk of severe weather remains for Thursday - WCTV

By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
March 4, 2020 - 11:26 a.m.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — A slight risk of severe weather is in place for the eastern Big Bend and south-central Georgia Thursday with a threat of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. A lower 'marginal' risk was in place for the rest of the Big Bend and South Georgia.

The Storm Prediction Center maintained a risk for the viewing area as a surface low pressure system was centered near Pensacola Thursday morning based on hand-drawn surface analysis. A stationary (likely to north as a warm front) was just north of the Georgia-Florida border with deep moisture to the south of it. Another boundary, likely an outflow boundary from Wednesday, was indicated south of the front hugging near the Big Bend coastline.

Cloud cover was abundant Thursday morning, which could be a limiting factor in thunderstorm development. But with help from the approaching cold front, upper-level trough, and maybe the boundary across the coast, we have the potential for seeing more showers and storms today through the afternoon with a potential for a few to hit severe limits.

The timing of the cold front passing through will likely be through our western counties early to mid afternoon, our central counties mid to late afternoon, and eastern counties late afternoon to early evening. Daytime heating will allow higher odds for severe weather in our eastern counties - especially if the cloud cover breaks up.

We will continue to place updates on this story when warranted.

Be sure to download the WCTV Pinpoint Weather app to receive the latest watches and warnings.

This story was updated at 11:26 a.m. to reflect the changes in the risk areas from the Storm Prediction Center.

By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
March 4, 2020 - 3:30 p.m.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Tornado watches were canceled Wednesday afternoon, but severe weather threat remains - especially for Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center is maintaining the slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for our South Georgia counties and a slice of the northern Big Bend. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado are the main concerns. Large-scale forcing isn't as impressive Wednesday afternoon, according to the Storm Prediction Center's discussion. The odds for severe weather will drop past dusk as daytime heating is lost.

An outflow boundary moved south across South Georgia into the Big Bend early Wednesday afternoon, cranking out showers as it passed. On-and-off showers remain in the forecast for the rest of the afternoon into the early evening, possibly making a wet drive back home from work or school.

Guidance models somewhat differ with the setup for Thursday, with the European model being more aggressive with some of the dynamics. Regardless, there are enough ingredients to keep the low odds for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes in place for Thursday.

Be sure to download the WCTV Pinpoint Weather app to receive the latest watches and warnings.

This story was updated at 4:18 p.m. to reflect the cancellation of the tornado watch.

By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
March 4, 2020

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — A slight risk of severe weather was placed for parts of the Big Bend and South Georgia Wednesday into Thursday with a chance of damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes.

The threat has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a tornado watch for South Georgia until 6 p.m. Wednesday. This means conditions are favorable for tornadoes in the watch area.

A stationary front stretched across the Deep South along with mid-level energy, some instability and ample moisture will help not only provide a good chance of heavy rain across South Georgia, but also the chance for thunderstorms to hit severe limits.

A line of heavy rain with strong thunderstorms on the southern edge was moving easterly along the stationary front Wednesday morning, with a few storms prompting severe thunderstorm warnings in Georgia and Alabama.

The threat for strong to severe storms will continue Wednesday afternoon into the evening. With instability expected to wane after dusk, the threat for severe weather is expected to decrease.

The threat is expected to pick back up Thursday morning as a second round of storms is expected to develop as a low pressure system moves into the Southeast along with a cold front. The latest guidance models have been slowing the approach of a likely squall line and pushing it into our western counties late morning to early afternoon. The threats of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will remain for Thursday.

Be sure to download the WCTV Pinpoint Weather app to receive the latest watches and warnings.

By: Hannah Messier | WCTV Eyewitness News
March 3, 2020

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a slight risk (level two of five) for severe weather in the Big Bend and South Georgia Wednesday and Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch also goes in effect tonight for parts of South Georgia. The main threats associated with the incoming storms are strong wind gusts, isolated tornadoes and flooding.

The two systems providing fuel for the storms are a low pressure system moving through the northeast, with a cold front spanning the entire eastern United States from Pennsylvania to Louisiana. The cold front will start bringing scattered showers to our area Tuesday evening.

Another low pressure system is also moving through the Gulf of Mexico and will reach our area late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. A warm front will bring in warm, moist air from the gulf and help fuel storms. Showers and storms will continue through most of Thursday morning, with rain lingering during the early afternoon.

One inch to an inch and a half of rain is expected in the Big Bend, but heavier rainfall is forecasted farther north in South Georgia where a Flash Flood Watch has been issued. The warning extends from Brooks county and continues north. Three to five inches is likely with up to eight inches possible. The Watch goes into effect at 1 AM EST and lasts through Thursday evening. Don't drive through flood waters, turn around and don't drown.

Make sure to pay attention to the forecast in the coming days and download the WCTV Pinpoint Weather App to stay ahead of the storm.

Copyright 2020 WCTV. All rights reserved.

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