The worst of the current wave of coronavirus infections seems to be behind us, with the seven-day rolling average of new cases trending down in almost every part of the country. Nationally, that average peaked on Jan. 8 at nearly 260,000 new cases; the figure for Feb. 3, 136,442, amounts to a 47 percent drop from that peak.
Some parts of the country, including the Upper Midwest, are experiencing bigger decreases in new cases than others. Four states in the region — Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Iowa — have seen average daily cases fall by 80 percent or more.
The places with the steepest decreases tend to be small counties where the overall case count is relatively small, leading to wild swings in the data. Restricting the data to about 600 counties that had at least 100 daily cases at their recent peak shows that cases have fallen 60 percent on average.
Most of the areas on this map showing smaller decreases experienced their winter peaks later, meaning they haven't had as much time to come down. For example, the Midwest peaked in mid-November, while the Eastern Seaboard peaked in mid-January.
The current decline remains most pronounced in the Midwest. In Hennepin County, home to Minneapolis, daily cases have fallen to roughly 200 from 1,200. Wayne County, home to Detroit, saw a similar drop, to 220 from 1,200.
Even while cases in the United States broadly are trending downward, some parts of the country are still reporting new cases at a rate higher than during the worst peak they experienced last year. This map compares current rates with past peaks, defined here as the highest daily average before Oct. 1. For some states that saw surges early in the pandemic when widespread testing was not yet available, these early peaks may be understated.
Most of the places on the map above experienced a relatively small surge in reported cases during the first wave of the pandemic early last year. While on a downward trajectory now, the current number of new cases is higher than anything they experienced during the first six months of the coronavirus crisis.
Maine, for example, saw relatively low case counts until November, when cases began to rise before peaking in late January at nearly 12 times the level of the state’s peak last year. Even so, the current daily case count in Maine is tame compared with some other parts of the country — such as Texas, whose rate is triple that of Maine when adjusted for population.
In New York State, areas outside of New York City weren’t hit as hard as the city was in the spring last year, but faced a brutal second wave this winter. Hawaii is the only state in the country where the first wave was more severe than the second wave in terms of reported cases.
U.S. average daily cases
Ala.
2,281
–47%
+19%
Alaska
161
–78%
+17%
Ariz.
4,100
–61%
+6.5%
Ark.
1,638
–47%
+96%
Calif.
16,269
–64%
+62%
Colo.
1,329
–73%
+117%
Conn.
1,381
–54%
+25%
Del.
450
–46%
+92%
D.C.
191
–41%
–1.5%
Fla.
9,778
–46%
–18%
It remains to be seen whether the new variants of the coronavirus circulating in different parts of the country will trigger another surge in cases. The more contagious variant first identified in the U.K. has now been detected in more than half of states. On the other hand, as more people are vaccinated, transmission rates could fall, preventing a surge. While both vaccines currently approved in the United States require two shots, studies show that even one dose offers strong protection against the virus.
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February 05, 2021 at 05:00PM
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U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Down, but Eclipse Spring and Summer Peaks - The New York Times
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