Everything will be nice and quiet this morning. This afternoon, for some of us at least, not so much. We have a warm day in store just the same with cooler temps to follow tomorrow. An active week lies in wait from there with a couple of rain opportunities and a general downhill slide in our temperatures.
It's a wild-looking NYS Mesonet map this morning! Temps in northern New York are well into the 60s, thanks to clouds overhead and a steady if not gusty south wind. A little closer to home, the skies are clear or mostly clear and the wind is much lighter. With all the terrain in these parts, this setup can result in a widespread of temperatures. This morning is a good example of that, as we are ranging from the upper 30s to the upper 50s, and you don't have to travel far to feel both ends of the spectrum. Case in point, Johnstown to Edinburg to Ballston Spa is sitting at 39/40 degrees while it's in the mid-50s in Duanesburg and Schaghticoke. The red 'A' = Albany.
Sunshine will be around this morning and into the afternoon. It'll stay breezy with the morning temperature spread narrowing; the coldest spots will see a fast rise, while the milder locales will also jump up nicely. It all adds up to a lot of 70s in these parts, not too shabby for October 10. That's the good news.
The bad news is we'll have a severe weather set up this afternoon that will bear similarities to Wednesday's. Will we see the same results? No.
But, the combination of plenty of upper-level energy and an advancing cold front will be enough to kick off some nasty thunderstorms with strong and gusty winds, especially north of the Twin Bridges.
The difference (a biggie) between today and Wednesday is we'll not have everything "lined up" to come together to develop and advance another ugly, big line. Instead for today, we'll look for a few scattered thunderstorms to develop across the Adirondacks by mid-afternoon, and they'll advance south and southeast from there. As they do, they'll run out of some of that upper-level support. This means once you hit the Capital District and points south and east, these storms will be weakening. That said, those stronger ones to the north will have gusty wind, some small hail and perhaps even a quick spin-up tornado.
Here is a map from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. The areas in yellow have the best shot at the nastiest of storms.
Getting into this evening, showers will continue to push south and east out of our area, weakening as they go. It'll stay relatively mild until a secondary front slips through overnight, bringing colder air behind it. That'll bring another widespread in overnight low temperatures, but a more north to south, uniform one. It'll fall to the upper 30s in the Adirondacks while low 50s hang on down the Hudson Valley.
Tomorrow into Monday
We'll be in the wake of an active Saturday tomorrow with plenty of sunshine, a north breeze and cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 40s in the higher elevations north of Albany while we'll see 50s and low 60s elsewhere.
We'll stay clear into the night before clouds advance from the south overnight. Temperatures will halt their fall and rise a bit as we get to daybreak under a cloudy sky by then.
The clouds will be a function of a warm front and the remnants of Hurricane Delta, which pounded Louisiana late yesterday. Showers will develop early in the day Monday, and they'll be heavier and steadier as you head south of the Twin Bridges through the morning and into the afternoon. Looking north of the Capital District or so, it'll be more showery and even staying dry farther north. It'll be a cool day for all, however, with highs in the upper 40s to the middle 50s.
However, deeper into the day and into the night, more moisture from Delta will move in, bringing more widespread rain for Monday night into Tuesday.
Tuesday and beyond
The shorter workweek (for some of us, anyway) will start off cool and damp with rain and showers continuing. A cold front will advance from the west, weakening as it goes. Showers will wind down through the afternoon of what will be another pretty cool day. Skies will clear out a bit into the night and for the first part of Wednesday.
Wednesday itself will start off with some sunshine before more clouds roll in from the southwest. Those clouds will bring some more showers with them and cooler temperatures behind them, kind of a downward trend in that department as we head toward next weekend.
I'll keep you posted but it'll be a typical reminder that October is really a "turning the corner" month when we tote the line of flirting with late summer while staring down the teeth of fall that's yet to come.
On that note, have a great day and enjoy the warm temperatures! This day could very well bring the highest temperatures we'll see for the rest of the year.
"severe" - Google News
October 10, 2020 at 05:54PM
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Jason Gough's forecast: Warm day with potential for more severe weather - Times Union
"severe" - Google News
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