The peak of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has arrived, now that the calendar has turned to Sept. 10 — which is historically the most active period for tropical storms and hurricanes to form.
The season officially starts on June 1, then ramps up from the middle of August through late October, with Sept. 10 being the top of the peak when averaged out.
Even though Mother Nature doesn’t always follow this timetable, the odds are favorable for more storms to develop and strengthen in the Atlantic hurricane basin this time of year because of the atmospheric and ocean conditions.
AccuWeather notes that two big ingredients needed for tropical systems to form and thrive are typically in play in September and early October — very warm ocean temperatures and low vertical wind shear.
“The warm water does two things: It creates the lower pressure and allows the atmosphere to be more unstable,” said Dan Kottlowski, a hurricane expert at AccuWeather. “You have a better chance for thunderstorms to develop coherently around any rotating feature.”
Wind shear occurs when winds change their speed and the direction they are blowing at different heights in the atmosphere. When wind shear is strong, it disrupts the development of organized storm systems, but when it is weak it becomes more favorable for storms to form, Kottlowski noted.
Although the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season hasn’t been as active as last year’s record-breaking season, it has been generating more storms than average. So far, this season has produced eight tropical storms and five hurricanes (Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida and Larry) — three of which strengthened into major hurricanes, at category 3 or higher.
3 storms being watched
As of Friday, Hurricane Larry continues to swirl in the northern Atlantic, with top sustained winds of 85 mph, making it a category 1 storm. Although Larry is heading towards Newfoundland in eastern Canada and poses no direct threat to the United States, the storm is creating large ocean swells that are reaching the Jersey Shore and posing a high risk of dangerous rip currents.
Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center are also monitoring two tropical waves that both have a high probability of strengthening into a tropical depression or a named tropical storm in the next five days. (The next two names on the official list of storm names are Nicholas and Odette.)
One of those disturbances is generating “disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea and portions of the Yucatan peninsula,” the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning.
This map shows the location of Hurricane Larry and two tropical waves that have a strong chance of becoming tropical depressions or tropical storms in the next five days.National Hurricane Center
“This system is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend,” the agency said. “Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast.”
As of now, this disturbance has a 40% chance of turning into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and a 70% chance within the next five days.
Forecasters expect the other tropical wave to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Friday night and say “environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.”
The hurricane center says this wave has a 50% chance of turning into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and a 70% chance within the next five days.
Last year’s hurricane season set an all-time record, with 30 named storms and 12 that made a direct hit on the United States. In addition, 2020 was the fifth consecutive hurricane season that was more active than normal.
This is the latest forecast track of Hurricane Larry as of Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. The storm is heading towards Newfoundland in eastern Canada but is creating large ocean swells and dangerous rip currents along the Jersey Shore and other parts of the eastern United States.National Hurricane Center
Thank you for relying on us to provide the local weather news you can trust. Please consider supporting NJ.com with a voluntary subscription.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.
"peak" - Google News
September 10, 2021 at 09:54PM
https://ift.tt/3E3WY65
Hurricane season hits peak with Larry still spinning, 2 potential storms brewing in Atlantic - NJ.com
"peak" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2KZvTqs
https://ift.tt/2Ywz40B
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Hurricane season hits peak with Larry still spinning, 2 potential storms brewing in Atlantic - NJ.com"
Post a Comment