A strong cold front will develop a solid line of thunderstorms across Lower Michigan. The heart of Lower Michigan will have the storms moving through during the heat of the afternoon and early evening. As a result, severe thunderstorms will possibly sweep across Lower Michigan Tuesday afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of Lower Michigan with a level two risk of severe thunderstorms on a system with five levels of risk. The yellow shaded area is the level two risk area.
Overall chance of severe weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The level two risk area does not cover the far southeast corner of Lower Michigan as of the Sunday night forecast. The reason is the line of storms is expected to arrive in far southeast Lower about 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. By that time late in the evening the atmosphere will be cooling and the storms will lose their potency.
There is enough wind shear to not rule out an isolated tornado or two.
Chance of an isolated tornado within 25 miles of a given point.
If the storms evolve into a solid line, the main threat will be isolated high wind gusts for a few minutes at the beginning of the storms.
Chance of wind gusts of 57 mph or faster Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Large hail, with a diameter of one inch or larger, is a very slight possibility.
Chance of large hail Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Here is the radar forecast from early Tuesday morning to late Tuesday evening.
Radar forecast from 5 a.m. Tuesday 10 p.m. Tuesday.
Storms are usually strongest between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. Based on the radar forecast, the line of storms will be most robust when it travels through Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, Alma, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Lansing, Flint and the Thumb. As the storms head toward Jackson, Ann Arbor and Detroit late in the evening, they may be losing some steam and not be severe.
Watch for update late Tuesday morning and afternoon. Be ready to take cover briefly for up to one hour as the storms move through your region.
"severe" - Google News
September 07, 2021 at 10:21AM
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Afternoon round of severe storms, isolated tornado likely across Lower Michigan - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
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