- Thunderstorms will begin to develop Sunday afternoon.
- The threat of severe storms will continue into Sunday night.
- Damaging winds is the primary threat, but large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible.
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected to develop in parts of the Central and Southern Plains Sunday into early Monday.
Here's a closer look at what to expect with this upcoming severe threat.
Severe Outlook
Area Of Concern: Areas from northern Texas into Oklahoma and Kansas have the highest chance of severe thunderstorms. The chance for isolated severe storms extends into southeastern Nebraska, western Missouri and western Arkansas.
Threats: Damaging wind is the main concern but some large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible.
Now is a good time to review or form a severe weather plan. Severe weather can occur year-round but usually ramps up in March, followed by the peak months of April, May and June.
Sunday's Severe Weather Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)Timing
Sunday: Thunderstorm development may not occur until late Sunday afternoon or the evening hours and is most likely in areas shown in red on the map below.
A few supercell thunderstorms may form in the afternoon and early evening before a line of thunderstorms organizes.
Sunday Night: A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to push eastward from the evening possibly into the overnight.
The Setup
An area of low pressure will emerge in the Plains on Sunday and strengthen as it tracks northeastward. This is the same system that is now pummeling California. More information about that part of this system can be found here.
Moisture will increase ahead of this system and temperatures will warm into the 60s and 70s, which will help to increase instability.
Strong winds just above the surface will contrast with lighter winds at the ground and will be favorable for supercell development.
The ingredients currently look to be favorable for at least some severe thunderstorms to form beginning late Sunday afternoon.
(MAPS: Weather And Highs Next 7 Days)
Unusual Threat For February?
Recent severe weather has primarily targeted the Deep South, but Sunday's threat is a bit farther west in portions of the Plains.
Severe thunderstorms are not as common in the central and Southern Plains in February, but can happen.
Usually, the Deep South is at an elevated risk in February because of its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, where warm, moist air can surge northward, adding to the instability in the atmosphere.
(Deeper Look: February's Typical Tornado Threat)
In the lighter red areas, there is a 0.1% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point by late February. The darker red shading is for locations that have a 0.2% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point by late February. Based on 1982-2011 averages.
(NOAA/Storm Prediction Center)The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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Severe Thunderstorms Expected In The Plains Sunday | Weather.com - The Weather Channel
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