Whether you like summer or winter, you probably also love fall. It seems to be the favorite season of most Michiganders. Here is a forecast of when Michigan’s fall colors could reach peak color.
I’ve been fine-tuning my Michigan fall color forecast since 1994. In fact, it looks like I wrote my first fall color forecast for MLive back in August 2013.
I’ve learned a lot about trying to predict fall color in the last 25 years.
I’ve learned cold nights really do matter. I’ve learned shorter amounts of daylight from cloudy stretches in September also help bring on fall color. A hot, sunny, summery stretch in September will stop the progression of fall color, like flipping a light switch. Drought can bring on color early, but crispy leaves also fall off the trees quicker.
I’ve found the best condition for a great stretch of peak color in Michigan is a lack of wind and rain right at peak. The leaves stay on longer, and we can enjoy longer.
So what does this year look like for fall color timing? I use two drives to gauge where northern and central Michigan is on the fall color change status. I drive U.S. 10, M-115 and M-37 from Saginaw to Traverse City, and M-55 from West Branch to Cadillac. I also ask for current reports from MLive readers.
As of Thursday, September 9, 2021, there is more color than usual for early September. I would call it about 10 percent color on the drive from West Branch to Cadillac.
If we could get some cold nights and early mornings in the 30s and 40s, fall color would really develop. But that’s where the coming warm weather pattern is likely going to stop the early progression of fall colors.
Take the earlier than usual color now, but only a couple of nights in the 40s over the next two weeks. This should bring Michigan back to just a little earlier than normal on peak color.
Here is my projection of peak fall colors. Use this to plan your several fall color trips.
Projected Michigan fall color peak, based on conditions on September 9, 2021
This represents a fall color peak about four days earlier than usual.
There are several points to remember here. I always recommend planning a trip toward the end of a projected peak week. It’s better to show up a day or two after peak than be too early and see not much color.
You can always get two weekends in a row of peak color around the Traverse City area and other Great Lakes shoreline areas. A classic example is the Traverse City area. The Old Mission Peninsula stays warm on chilly nights. The trees are stubborn to change color on Old Mission.
I have found the fall color eventually can’t not be denied. Even in years when warm September weather thwarts fall color development, it eventually happens. The reason- we can’t stop the loss of daylight. The shortening days reduce the green production in leaves, and the fall colors come out. And of course we know we can’t stop eventual cold October mornings.
The next trick is to figure out if it’s going to be a colorful fall or a muted-color peak. We will have to wait until a little more color shows to see what the underlying color looks like.
Make your plans for fall color tours, and watch for updates to fall color progression here.
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September 10, 2021 at 06:58AM
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Don’t miss peak fall color: When to expect the best color in Michigan in 2021 - MLive.com
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