Oregon’s rural areas have historically had it worst during the state’s economic downturns, with less access to investment, education and other resources that help regions ride out the bad times and build the foundation for a recovery.
The coronavirus recession is unique, though, and it’s playing out quite differently from past downturns – at least in the early stages.
Job losses in southern and eastern Oregon over the past year are roughly half what they have been in the Portland area. In August, the lowest unemployment rate in Oregon wasn’t in one of the state’s prosperous urban centers but rather in tiny Wheeler County in Central Oregon, at just 4.4%.
So what’s going on?
“It’s a little complicated,” said Chris Rich, the state’s regional economist for eastern Oregon. He says a number of different factors appear at play.
Oregon’s job losses have been steepest on the coast and in the Portland area, where restaurants, hotels and entertainment venues that serve tourists and large crowds have shut down – or severely reduced operations – to contain the coronavirus.
The disruption has been much less pronounced in eastern and southern parts of the state. It’s not that Medford, John Day, and Pendleton aren’t great places to visit. It’s just that those regions are far less dependent on tourism and entertainment than, say, Seaside and Bend.
Guy Tauer, regional economist for southern Oregon, notes that the state has lost 25% of all leisure and hospitality jobs this year. In Jackson County, along the California border, the sector is down just 7.1% -- only 830 lost jobs all told.
Another factor buttressing eastern and southern Oregon: a relatively high share of government jobs. A quarter of all workers in eastern Oregon are employed by the government, 10 percentage points higher than the state average. Government work is less volatile than many private sector jobs.
No sector and no region is immune from a protracted downturn, of course. Rich said the Great Recession was slow to hit eastern Oregon as the initial economic shock from the housing and banking crises worked its way through the broader economy.
When those broader impacts ultimately did filter into the regional economy, though, the effects were both more severe and harder to shake than in urban Oregon. If the coronavirus recession lingers, Rich said it could yet come down hard.
“I think that’s always a concern,” Rich said.
-- Mike Rogoway | twitter: @rogoway | 503-294-7699
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Oregon Insight: Pandemic job losses less severe in southern and eastern parts of the state - OregonLive
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